Meetu Singh
2024 was a remarkable year for elections as voters in more than 60 countries went to the polls. It also turned out to be a difficult year for incumbents and traditional political parties. Rattled by rising prices, divided over cultural issues and angry at the political status quo, voters in many countries sent a message of frustration.
In this essay, we analyze four major themes that emerged from this year’s busy slate of elections around the world:
- A tough year for incumbents
- The staying power of right-wing populism
- Polarized battles over tradition and change
- International conflicts with political implications
In 2024, several high-profile elections marked significant political shifts worldwide:
- In the U.S., Republicans reclaimed the presidency as Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, with the party also gaining control of Congress. This marked the third consecutive presidential loss for the incumbent party.
- In the U.K., the Labour Party ended 14 years of Conservative rule with a landslide victory.
- Botswana saw the Botswana Democratic Party lose power for the first time in nearly 60 years.
- In South Korea, opposition parties won the majority in the National Assembly, leading to a dramatic confrontation with President Yoon Suk Yeol, who briefly imposed martial law before it was overturned.
- Opposition parties also triumphed in Ghana, Panama, Portugal, and Uruguay.
Meanwhile, incumbent parties retained power but faced notable challenges:
- South Africa’s ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since apartheid.
- Japan’s ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority.
- India’s BJP, led by Narendra Modi, secured a third term but was forced into a coalition.
- In France, President Macron’s snap elections weakened his centrist alliance against both left- and right-wing opposition.
A tough year for incumbents
Economic struggles made 2024 a tough year for incumbents worldwide. In the U.S., the economy dominated voter concerns, especially among Trump supporters. A global survey across 34 countries revealed widespread economic pessimism, with a median of 64% describing their national economy as poor. This sentiment was even stronger in nations like France, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, and the UK, where over 70% shared this view.
Inflation was a key issue, compounded by long-term economic challenges like inequality and the aftermath of financial crises and the pandemic.
However, economic concerns weren’t the only driver of voter discontent. Dissatisfaction with democracy was widespread, with 54% of respondents across 31 nations unhappy with how democracy functions in their countries. Many felt disconnected from political leaders and institutions, believing their voices were ignored and that no party truly represented their views.
The staying power of right-wing populism
Frustration with traditional political elites has fueled the growth of right-wing populist movements across the globe, particularly in Europe:
- Right-wing populist parties gained ground in European parliamentary elections, many campaigning on anti-immigration platforms.
- France’s National Rally increased its parliamentary seats and helped topple a conservative government despite efforts by left- and center-leaning parties to block its influence.
- Austria’s Freedom Party secured a record 29% of the vote, though governing coalitions excluded it.
- Romania saw strong performances from far-right parties and candidates, though election results were later annulled due to Russian interference.
- Portugal’s Chega won 50 parliamentary seats, marking a rapid rise in influence.
- Nigel Farage of Reform UK finally won a seat in Parliament, and Alternative for Germany made history with a state election victory.
Right-wing populism has become entrenched in European politics, consistently competitive in elections despite setbacks, such as Poland’s 2023 elections.
Outside Europe, populism has also gained traction:
- In the U.S., Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement dominates the Republican Party, which now controls all three branches of government after this year’s elections.
- In India, despite setbacks, Narendra Modi remains a dominant figure.
- Indonesia elected Prabowo Subianto as president, despite concerns over his human rights record.
- In Latin America, leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele have surged in popularity, pushing conservative agendas on social issues and crime.
Left-wing populism has also found success, notably in Mexico, where Morena secured majorities in Congress, and Claudia Sheinbaum became the country’s first female president.
Whether right- or left-wing, populist movements have tapped into voter discontent with elites and the belief that traditional parties are disconnected from ordinary citizens.
Polarized battles over tradition and change
The spread of populism has coincided with deepening political divides over culture and identity in many nations.
In France, Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party emphasize protecting French culture from immigrants and outsiders, a theme echoed by other right-wing parties in Europe. Austria’s Freedom Party, Alternative for Germany, the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom, and Italy’s Brothers of Italy have made immigration—particularly from predominantly Muslim countries—a central issue.
Beyond immigration, Austria’s Freedom Party has also opposed LGBTQ+ rights, advocating for a constitutional definition of only two genders and opposing same-sex relationships. Similar cultural issues surfaced in several 2024 elections.
These debates reflect broader ideological divides over the role of tradition in society. A 2022 Pew Research survey found sharp differences between the ideological right and left on whether countries should stick to traditional ways of life or embrace change. In the U.S., this divide is particularly stark: 91% of liberals favored embracing change, compared to just 28% of conservatives.
The U.S. stands out globally for its deep ideological polarization, with wide partisan gaps on issues like abortion and climate change. America’s two-party system amplifies these divisions, as race, religion, and ideology have increasingly aligned with partisan identities. This “stacking” of identities often fuels conflicts rooted in differing conceptions of national identity, creating intense and sometimes existential political debates.
International Conflicts and Political Divides
While domestic issues dominate elections, international conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars shaped political dynamics in 2024.
- Russia-Ukraine War: Support for Ukraine revealed ideological divides. Many on the right, including leaders like Nigel Farage in the UK and Marine Le Pen in France, criticized aid to Ukraine or EU sanctions against Russia. Slovakia elected a pro-Russia president, while right-wing populists in Austria, Germany, and the U.S. expressed skepticism about supporting Kyiv. In the U.S., Republican support for Ukraine aid has declined, and Vice President-elect JD Vance advocated reducing assistance.
- Israel-Hamas War: This conflict created tensions on the left. In the UK, some Labour losses went to left-wing candidates critical of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pro-Israel stance. In the U.S., young Democrats opposed the Biden administration’s approach. In France, accusations of antisemitism arose over France Unbowed’s strong criticism of Israel.
These conflicts underscored how global events can influence domestic political debates and electoral outcomes.
Still, something is missing
We have noticed one thing that the western countries brought the concept of the LPG means (Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation) and they asked all other countries who had influence of leftist philosophy to open up so that they are able to sell their products and services and technology. This had impact and these economies opened up and got prosperity. The example is India and China. But when they found that countries are now becoming their competitors then they have become protectionist and now they want to close their doors for others. They have realised threat. And the issues like poverty, unemployment, which was existing earlier became prominent within their closed doors, and affected election.
The great power is not technology and wealth, but human is the great asset to any economy. The China and India is blessed with human power, and they can turn tables to their side if proper direction is given. Russia having technology and big size and wealth but unable to overcome Ukraine. He is seeking help from North Korea and is ready to take soldiers from any corner of the world. If war breaks out in Europe, then same thing will happen and they won’t be able to sustain for longer periods.
The economically developed countries are headings for change like America, Britain, Japan, South Korea, France etc in the name of the cultural identity or predominantly in house protectionist attitudes then it makes it clear that the economic development have a role to certain extent but it becomes secondary when the matter of culture or own identity comes for play.
Looking ahead
The list of nations set to hold national elections in 2025 includes Canada, Chile, Germany, Jamaica, Norway and Singapore. The results will show whether incumbents – and those who are seen as representing the political status quo – continue to be targets of voter discontent.
Source:
Paper published By Richard Wike, Moira Faganand Laura Clancy at pewresearch.org
Notes by Ac. Dilip Sagar Dada
